April 15, 2008
Bernanke Says A Recession
is possible. Does that include stamps, too?
|
|
|
Owners of philatelic material like this
rare Confederate States of America Civil
War era patriotic cover simply love it
there is a slowndown in the national
economy. Rare and valuable stamps
virtually always hold their value and
actually appreciate in value, too. |
By
Randy L. Neil, Stamps.net Editor
 We
were watching the other day when the Chairman of the
Federal Reserve Bank, Ben Bernanke, remarked that
the U.S. is probably heading into a recession. Stamp
dealers and collectors should not be too concerned
about this. Although some collectors will naturally
cut back their purchases during such times, there
are countless others who turn to the hobby as an
"escape" from negative times...and as a hedge
against other forms of investment properties that do
not appreciate like stamps
If
you have the opportunity, you should follow the
activity among America's top philatelic auction
houses...and notice the prices realized at auction
these days for rare United States stamps and covers.
The prices continue to set all kinds of records. So
there is vigorous pursuit of rare and quality stamps
in the marketplace, recession or not.
And
also take a look at the relatively new Premium Grade
Material...stamps that are being graded "90" and
above by the Professional Stamp Experts expertizing
service. If you want to see some astounding record
prices, watch the market in this kind of high grade
material. It's astounding.
Our
advice: don't moan about a recession. Take advantage
of it!
|
Recession, Anyone?
|
|
|
The most famous of stamp dealers, Herman
"Pat" Herst, Jr. (above), was generally
very optimistic about stamp collecting
during a recession. His business was
actually started in the greatest
recession in history, the Great
Depression, and it flourished. |
By
Randy L. Neil, Stamps.net Editor
This
morning, January 14, 1008, the New York Times
reported that consumer spending in all sectors, from
wealthy people to the poor, has dropped
significantly. Concurrently, numerous economists are
predicting that the U.S. economy will tumble into a
recession before year's end. This may be bad news
for most of the country, but probably won't be to
the stamp dealing community.
Back
in history at the time of the stock market collapse
in 1929, the entire country was heading into a
decade-long recession the proportions of which are
almost too difficult to even imagine today (over 30%
of America's workers became unemployed).
Simultaneously, philately began to prosper.
For
not only did we have a President (FDR) who helped
popularize the hobby, millions of depressed citizens
turned to inexpensive hobbies for solace and
comfort. Stamp collecting led the way.
Spending
on stamps actually rose all through the 1930s, and
thousands of collectors even became full-time
dealers. Stamp shows, stamp clubs, stamp
magazines---all flourished during this period. Since
then, every time America has plunged into even a
mini-recession, our hobby continued forward,
unabated, all through it. As a matter of fact,
prices continued to rise during these recessions.
Depressed
about the economy? Turn to your stamps!
|
The "Highest Auction Realization for
a U.S. Stamp" bodes well for the
average collector. Here's why...
|
|
|
This pristine
copy (one of the finest known) of
the 1918 24-cent Inverted Jenny airmail stamp
realized $935,000 in a November auction at
Robert A. Siegel Auction Galleries in New York |
By Randy L. Neil, Stamps.net Editor
As
you can see from the image above, an astounding stamp was sold for an
astounding price at a recent Siegel sale in New York.
In fact, it is the highest price ever paid at an auction for a single
U.S. stamp!
It's
always news, of course, when a bigtime rare stamp is sold for a huge sum
of money. But the average stamp collector with limited funds to spend on
his hobby probably couldn't care less about a stamp that gets sold for
so much money.
Well,
he should care---and it offers an important lesson for all of us.
When
great stamps reach astronomical prices at auction, it bodes well for the
entire hobby. Auctions are where the true values of stamps and cover are
set. The jumbo price for this Inverted Jenny meant that this stamp---and
for that matter, all rare stamps---are in great demand. And great demand
results in the value of stamps going up and up.
And
when the most important stamps go up in price, a large portion of all
other stamps tends to go up in value, too.
So
remember: though one hates to keep paying higher and higher prices for
stamps, when they do go up, the value of our own holdings generally
tends to go up, too. Translation: Really good stamps in great condition
are usually a pretty sound investment!
Prexie postal history is now among the
most popular cover collecting
specialties
A
specialty in which collectors see price rises all the time
is the area
of U.S. 1938 Presidential Series (The Prexies)
Postal History.
This seemingly common cover sells for well
over $50.00!
By Randy L. Neil, Stamps.net Editor
It
is not particularly difficult to make wise purchases of stamps and
covers that could very well increase in price even over the short term.
I began collecting cover franked with stamps from America's 1938
Presidential Series (The Prexies) a number of years ago and, to my
amazement, they have never stopped rising in value. The same can be said
about a lot of modern-era stamps when they are found on commercially
used covers that are a bit out of the ordinary.
Prexie
postal history is lively and full of value because, during the period of
the set's use, World War II took place as did the dramatic domestic and
worldwide expansion of airmail. Much of the military-related mail of the
period, for instance, is highly sought after and valuable. And hard as
it might be to believe, some Prexie covers have now passed the $1,000
mark in value.
The
set is popular on and off cover because, for many stamp collectors, it
was the set of stamps they grew up with in the 1940s and 1950s.
Some of the mid 20th century issues are becoming
classics
|
This unusual, yet attractive, essay of
the
Samuel F.B. Morse commemorative from
the early 1940s is becoming more and
more valuable every year.
|
By
Randy L. Neil, Stamps.net Editor
Most
astute collectors think of America's 19th century
stamps as being "The Classics"---and yet, as we
emerge further into the 21st century, it is becoming
apparent that "The Classics" can also include the
stamps from the pre-1950 period. This is especially
true with many Washington-Franklins and even some of
the scarcer 1938 Presidential Series (Prexie)
stamps. However, it's most true when one considers
unusual items like essays and proofs.
Unlike
essays and proofs from America's 19th century
stamps---which were in the hands of countless
printing salesmen of the period---20th century
essays and proofs are extremely rare and highly
sought after. If you find any of these items---at
auction or with dealers at various shows---consider
adding them to your collection, if only because of
their rising values. |
|
Stamp
collector Hank Hartsfield, famous U.S. astronaut and the man
whose father the Atlanta Airport is named, is shown signing
autographs at a stamp show in 1990. |
By Randy L. Neil, Stamps.net Editor
The
legions of people who collected stamps in the 1930s found their ranks
grow by leaps and
bounds when Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected
President of the United States in 1932.
Roosevelt was a well known
philatelist and his personal popularity caused an upward spurt in
new
stamp collectors that has never been matched. During this time, because
of this popularity,
the values of stamps, especially classic U.S.
stamps, rose seriously in value.
The
issuance of the Yoda (Star Wars) stamp this coming fall will attract the
same
kind of attention to the hobby. Many people are convinced the Yoda
stamp will come close
to surpassing the Elvis Presley stamp as the
nation's alltime best selling postage stamp.
Massive national attention
to stamp collecting always has a tendency to cause some kind of
rise in
stamp prices...but remember, the rise generally takes place ONLY in the
early issues...say, pre-1930.
|
James E. Lee |
Meet our new "MarketView"
columnist...
Jim Lee is one of
America's top stamp dealers, well known for U.S. Essays & Proofs,
Postal History, and philatelic literature. |
With the Internet blossoming, what's
the future of stamp shows in America?
|
Collectors at a dealer's booth
at the New York Mega Event, October 2006. |
As
a regular dealer on some of the larger bourses in America (the
APS annual Stampshow and the New York Mega Events, for
instance), I have seen, firsthand, how the attendance at a good
number of our shows has gone down. Obviously, because countless
collectors are staying home and acquiring their stamps from
Internet sources like eBay, the number of people attending shows
would naturally go down.
However,
if 2006 is any indication, this reduction in attendance might
only be temporary. With more than 260,000 people having come
through the gates at the huge Washington 2006 show last May,
it's clear that collectors DO WISH TO CONTINUE to attend shows.
There is nothing like being able to reach out and touch and feel
a stamp or cover you are considering buying. Stamp shows not
only provide this kind of tactile opportunity, they are monitors
of the market. And to me, the stamp market right now is in
REALLY good shape!
|
Fall 2006
By Randy Neil
 Dealers and collectors involved in
the commercial end of the hobby should be watching the philatelic
marketplace more closely than usual in the wake of the most successful
international stamp show ever held. If history is any indication, the
stamp market will enjoy a period of better-than-normal growth and more
activity for a number of months following this great event. In past
decades, when the once-every-ten-years international show has been staged
(i.e., TIPEX in 1936, CIPEX in 1947, FIPEX in 1956, SIPEX in 1966,
INTERPHIL in 1976, AMERIPEX in 1986, and PACIFIC 97 in 1997), the demand
for stamps in practically all categories has been driven up.
This phenomenon is, generally, only
temporary, but it is always a nice indication that the stamp hobby
continues to enjoy good health.
Why do we think this will happen again
here in 2006? If you were a visitor to this giant exhibition in
Washington, D.C. in the May 27-June 3 period, you would have seen the
largest and most positive crowds I think have ever been witnessed in the
hobby of stamp collecting. Security personnel at the show counted the
number of people coming through the doors of the Washington Convention
Center during the show, and their little hand counters (those little
devices that, when clicked, rack up the numbers) ended up with more than
226,000 people being counted. Based on these figures, they estimated that
more than 85,000 different people attended the giant show.
But these people were not there just to
see the many sights that has been arranged to whet the public appetite for
stamps (like some of the world's greatest rarities and the stamp
collection owned by England's Queen Elizabeth I). They came with money in
their pockets and the enthusiasm to spend it. Not only did they crowd the
aisles on the show's busiest days, but they were also apparent in large
numbers on days when stamp dealers expected the crowds to wane.
On a general basis, these crowds did NOT
wane during the show...and dealers have told many in the press that their
sales at the show greatly exceeded their expectations.
Thus, the stamp market has receive
another major shot in the arm. Because dealer stocks have been decently
depleted---because of this high demand---and the demand on the part of
collectors remains at a spiked level, we are going to witness higher
prices and even more increased demand for good quality, better-priced
stamps and covers. Whether this "spike"
in the marketplace remains UP is yet to be seen. But if the past is any
precursor, the prices will stabilize higher.
May-June 2006
By Michael Aldrich
With
this column I try to give our clients an inside look at the state of the
stamp market. With the
various activities that our company is involved in we are in a unique
position to interact with and observe the many facets of the philatelic
market. Our involvement in auctions, traveling to stamp shows and other
auctions and operating and maintaining various web sites on the internet
provide us with a wide variety of information regarding the state of the
market.
The
most recent major stamp show, the A.S.D.A. Mega show last November in New
York City was one of the best stamp shows that we have attended in over a
decade. Many of the dealers holding booths at that show were very pleased
with the attendance and buyer activity. It also appears that many of the
other regional stamp shows were very strong in the fourth quarter of last
year.
With
the boom of the internet, there are more part-time stamp dealers selling
stamps than at any time in our history. The number of philatelic websites
has grown dramatically over the last couple of years. With the internet
and the availability of high speed internet access to many homes
throughout the country, collectors anywhere have immediate access to stamp
inventories 24-7. The activity on our www.RareStampExchange.com website
over the last year has increased nearly every month. The number of bidders
and buyers on our Aldrichstamps.com web site where we house our ABC
Collection sales seems to increase with every auction. I truly believe
that the internet is still in its infancy and protracted growth and
expansion will continue for many years to come.
One
cannot pick up a philatelic newspaper or magazine and not see what is
happening in the many national auctions throughout the country. That
segment of the market has also been quite strong over the last year,
particularly for high quality stamps whether they are rarities or much
more common stamps. With the onslaught of the grading frenzy it is likely
that as more and more collectors get comfortable with the whole grading
concept, that the market for high quality stamps will become even more
explosive. As this process evolves we will see an ever widening gap
between the prices of high quality stamps and the more commercial grade
stamps.
As
the overall national and international economy strengthens the philatelic
market should keep pace. With current interest rates still at very
favorable levels, and unemployment near what many people call full
employment, and inflation rates at very manageable levels there are many
reasons to be optimistic about the future.
Lastly,
we are in the six month period prior to a major international stamp show
in this country, Washington 2006. Historically the stamp market goes
through a very strong growth period prior to these international shows. We
saw it before Interphil in Philadelphia in 1976, Ameripex in Chicago in
1986 and again at Pacific 97 in San Francisco in 1997. We also saw a
continued strong market after each of these shows.
With
the strength of the overall national economic market, the growth of the
internet on a philatelic basis, the prices at auction, the heated demand
for graded high quality stamps and the upcoming international stamp show
at Washington 2006 it is my feeling that we are potentially in one of the
best stamp markets that we have ever had.
|
